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Archives: January 2009
VENEZUELA: What's Ahead for Venezuela: Interview with Daniel Hellinger
What's Ahead for Venezuela: Interview with Daniel Hellinger
Megan Morrissey: What is your assessment of the strength of democracy in Venezuela today? Is it better or worse now than a decade ago, before President Chavez was elected?
Daniel Hellinger: It is difficult to answer this question with a simple "It's better or worse" response. There is no doubt in my mind that Venezuela is a more democratic place today that it was before December 1998. The Bolivarian Constitution was a major step forward in terms of democratic innovation and empowerment of citizens. Anti-poverty programs and programs to foster endogenous development have fostered "inclusion," a wide-spread sense among the majority poor that they are now empowered. And at the grassroots level, vigorous debates and innovative participatory practices have appeared, many of which have received little attention outside Venezuela. Community media are a good example here.
On the other hand, Venezuela lacks a responsible opposition. When it comes to the parties aligned against the government, this is hardly the fault of President Chávez. However, the lack of autonomous mechanisms within chavismo to hold government accountable is, in part, attributable to failures in leadership by Hugo Chávez. The dependency of the chavista movement on the charismatic leadership of the president indicates that the participatory and protagonistic character of the Bolivarian Constitution exists too much on paper, not enough in reality.
President Chávez might attribute this shortcoming to the defeat of the constitutional amendment packages in December 2007, but the Bolivarian Constitution of 1999 provides for many innovative participatory practices that have not been fully utilized. As for the community councils, they seem to be working best in parts of the country where there are previous experiences with participatory local governance or where innovative leaders, such as Julio Chávez in the state of Lara, have stimulated initiatives from below. However, in other cases the councils have been instituted from above and provided the basis for new patronage networks to evolve, short-circuiting well-intentioned plans to shift resources from venal politicians to the people.
I also see a weakness in the failure of the judicial system and the pro-Chávez media to function in a way that gives voice to those frustrated with the corruption and inefficiency within the government and the chavista movement. As people do not want to weaken the Revolution by taking complaints to the mainstream opposition media, this leaves them frustrated and even more likely to express their concerns through abstention or even voting for the opposition. And as for the courts, the prevailing practice seems to follow the rule expressed popularly in Mexico as, "For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law." That is, while prosecutions of important opposition leaders may in fact be grounded in law, they will seem selective as long as only opposition leaders are brought to justice.
MM: It seems sometimes that Washington's rigid definition of liberal democracy as the only "true" form of democracy is the source of much misunderstanding and much prejudice about Venezuela. What do you think people ought to know in order to better understand what is unique about Venezuela's system of government?
DH: The prejudiced reporting of the mainstream media in the U.S. means that people are unaware of just how well Venezuelan democracy fares when judged by conventional criteria, such as free speech, fair elections, etc. In fact, it is too easy to lose sight of how amazing it has been that Venezuelans were able to settle the question of Chávez's legitimacy through the recall election of 2004. And now matter how often we bring it up, few people outside of Venezuela seem to be aware how often Venezuelans have gone to polls to choose leaders or vote on important issues.
I think there is much to learn from the Venezuelan experience with participatory democracy in places such as Carora, where one can see the best practices associated with Venezuela's more participatory democracy. For example, we have severe problems in our cities. If the mayor of Carora can trust people in local assemblies to decide on priorities for spending half the municipal budget, at so far it seems to have worked, why can't we trust people in Detroit, Washington, or St. Louis to do the same?
MM: What were your impressions of the state and municipal elections on November 23rd? Do you think the results change the balance of power at all between the PUSV and opposition parties? What do the results mean?
DH: The good news for the PSUV was that it showed a capacity to mobilize voters, something in doubt after the defeat of the reform packages in December 2007. The opposition has pretty consistently gotten between 4.1 and 4.3 million votes nationally in each the last four national elections. So the capacity of chavismo to prevail nationally seems to depend on turning out at least that number. The PSUV actually turned out well over 5 million voters.
Having said that, there is no doubt that PSUV losses in Zulia (including Maracaibo), in Carabobo, and in much of Caracas area in strategic terms poses serious problems for chavismo. It will make harder the deployment of the new national police force, for example. It also concerns me that some of the high-profile chavista politicians who lost were awarded cabinet posts shortly afterwards. It shows the president's loyalty to his allies, but it loyalty is not always a virtue.
MM: Were the regional elections conducted in a transparent manner? What are your observations about how elections are conducted in Venezuela more generally?
There is no doubt that the ability of the National Electoral Council (CNE) to carry out fair national elections in the midst of high polarization is an enormous accomplishment, one that must in large measure be attributed to the democratic maturity of the Venezuelan people. Few other countries in the world can boast of such transparent balloting, especially where political tensions run so high and where the results have such consequences for control of significant financial resources.
From afar, it is easier to monitor and judge the conduct of the CNE, based in the capital, than to monitor how well the electoral system at the level of the states and municipalities. But here we have as evidence for the transparency of the process the unequivocal praise from two important, independent civic organizations, Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) and the Electoral Observation Network of the Asamblea Educativa. Here is a good example of the spirit, not just the letter of the Bolivarian Constitution put into practice -- civil society acting autonomously to guarantee democratic processes.
Now, having said this, it is also important to recognize that too many practices from the era of Punto Fijo (the old system of 1958-1998) remain in place. Take, for example, the media. No doubt in reaction to continued opposition and propaganda from most of the private media, government media carry out propaganda in favor of government candidates. When RCTV's license was revoked, we were told that it would be used to provide an autonomous outlet for production by community based media. That hasn't happened.
MM: Venezuelans may go to the polls yet again in early 2009 to hold a referendum on whether or not to put an end to presidential term limits. Is this indeed constitutional? Is there any precedent for this kind of thing in Latin America?
DH: It is constitutional, without a doubt. There have been many plebiscites in Latin America - the referendum on Pinochet's rule in Chile in 1988 comes to mind, and votes on convening constitutional assemblies, but I can't think of a similar process for amending the constitution.
As for re-election without limit, there are not very many Latin American examples, but in the United States there were no such limits until Congress changed the constitution to prevent a repetition of Franklin Roosevelt's successful run for a fourth consecutive term. Even today, political scientists recognize that the term limit somewhat limits the power of a president in his or her final years in office. Among those who argued for unlimited presidential re-election in the U.S. was Ronald Reagan.
Of course parliamentary systems have no limits on the tenure of a government leader. Margaret Thatcher clung to office from 1979 to 1990, and her party never even achieved a majority in any national election. Venezuela has a presidential, not parliamentary system, but at least citizens have the ability to recall a leader constitutionally, unlike the case in the United States, for example.
MM: Finally, what do you think is likely to be the result of the referendum, and what are the most important issues for Venezuela in 2009?
DH: Right now, based on the results of the November election and the president's continued popularity, I would say it is likely that the amendment will win. However, it is no sure thing - nor should it be in a democracy. There will undoubtedly be a major effort by the opposition, including the opposition controlled media, to defeat the proposal. For this to be successful, however, the opposition message must resonate with real citizen concerns. What might those be?
First, my own research and my own hunch is that many Venezuelans, especially the "ní-ní" (independent) voters, who are the largest block in the electorate, are wary of concentration of power, and there is little doubt that most of it is already in the hands of the president. The mass reaction to ending the RCTV broadcast license, despite the station's well-known role in the coup of 2002, is an illustration of how much Venezuelans are wary of abandoning checks on executive authority.
Let's also remember that the president himself has made the Bolivarian Constitution the symbol of the revolution in progress. It is, he said upon return from being kidnapped during the 2002 couple, like the "Popol Vuh" of the Maya, the people's book. There may be considerable reluctance to change such a sacred text - but then the opposition has little real credibility here because most of it had some involvement in the coup.
Second, there remains considerable discontent with the performance of the government - corruption and inefficiency. Until now, the electorate has tended not to hold the president himself responsible, but that may not hold true indefinitely. This will be more likely to be a factor if the new opposition governors and mayors show signs of governing responsively.
On the other hand, Venezuela, like just about every country, is entering a period of high economic uncertainty. The over-valued bolívar and inflation must now be confronted in the context of declining oil revenues. Until now, it has been possible to fund the anti-poverty misiones and at the same time allow huge amounts of money to be transferred to sectors of the bourgeoisie that either exploit political connections to the government or have simply found independent ways to exploit the surge in consumer spending brought about the by oil boom. Without a doubt, the two key issues for 2009 will be one old one - improving personal security - and a new one, adjusting to the new economic situation.
Assuming that the government is unlikely to modify drastically the basically state-capitalist nature of the economy, who will bear the brunt of sacrifices needed to bring the economy back to some approximation of equilibrium? Although Venezuelan under Chávez has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, most Venezuelans, including the ní-ní, still live in a precarious economic situation. They may, for good reason, see President Chávez as the main guarantee that they will not slip back into the kind of penury that is still part of their collective memory.
So, while I want to hedge my bet, I believe the president will win the referendum to make possible indefinite re-election. I anticipate that this will bring a predicable wave of condemnation from the media in the United States. But if the expressed will of the Venezuelan people is to allow re-election, we need to respect their decision.
I think it's also important to realize that even if President Chávez were to lose this recall, he probably still would be the most powerful politician in the country, and indisputable leader of its most popular political party. Neither his supporters nor his opponents should think that his capacity to shape Venezuela's future entirely hinges on this referendum.
Daniel Hellinger is Professor of Political Science at Webster University, St. Louis. He is co-editor of Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era (Lynne Rienner, 2003) and author of Venezuela: Tarnished Democracy (Westview Press, 1991).
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NEWS ROUNDUP from Center for Economic and Policy Research
Argentina
Argentina's Cobos Steps Up Criticism of Fernandez on Economy. Bloomberg Argentine president meets Fidel Castro. AFP
Bolivia
Bolivia's New Constitution. NACLA
Bolivia prepares for observers-packed referendum. Mercopress Bolivia's Morales to Nationalize Electric Companies, Razon Says. Bloomberg
Ecuador
Ecuador: Mining Protests Marginalized, But Growing. Upside Down World Ecuador Hires Lazard to Advise It on Bond Buyback, Correa Says. Bloomberg
Venezuela
Silva: Venezuela's Mercosur bid to be Oked. AP
Chavez hopes for change, still wary of 'US empire'. AP
Andean Region
Critics: Bush signoff on US-Peru trade pact ignores labor, environment concerns. AP Best performer Peru changes financial helmsman. Mercopress Chile billionaire to sell shares ahead of election. Reuters
Southern Cone
Lula: Obama expected to improve Brazil-U.S. ties. Xinhua
Brazil Bank Cuts Rate by 1 Point as Outlook Worsens. Bloomberg Paraguay requesting 300 million USD to finance 2009 budget. Mercopress
Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean
Mexico's PRI Stages a Political Comeback. World Politics Review Failure of Mexican stimulus package could warn U.S.. Bloomberg Leftists Prevail in El Salvador Legislative Elections. Latin American Herald Tribune The Majority Chose Change, El Salvador Candidate. Inside Costa Rica Sandinistas Win Majority in Northern Coastal Regional Elections. Latin American Herald Tribune Cuba removes tariffs to Venezuelan imports. El Universal Haitian Lawyer Lays Out Haiti Policy Agenda For Obama Team. CaribWorldNews
Region: Trade, Security, Economy and Integration
After Bahia: Toward a New Latin America of the 21st Century. Upside Down World What's ahead for Latin America-U.S. ties in Obama era?. Xinhua
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EL SALVADOR: Municipal and Legislative Election Results
From SHARE Foundation:
On January 18, 2009, approximately 2.3 million Salvadorans voted to elect 262 mayors and their municipal councils, 84 representatives to the Legislative Assembly, and 20 representatives to the Central-American Parliament. The 2.3 - 2.4 million Salvadorans participating in the election is equal to 54.4% to 57% of all Salvadorans registered in the electoral registry. This number is slightly higher than the participation in the 2006 Municipal and Legislative elections, where 2 million Salvadorans voted, which was equivalent to 54.2% of those registered.
The TSE still has yet to give the official final results for January 18's Municipal and Legislative Elections. The Center for the Processing of Electoral Results (CNPRE) has processed around 75.25% of the "acts" reviewed. Each "act" contains a tally of ballots for a specific Vote Receiving Board. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has planned to announce the final results on Friday, January 21, 2009. Nevertheless, the President of the TSE, Walter Araujo, assured that no later than today they would have 95% of the count finished.
The final counting process implies that the Department Electoral Boards (JED), the TSE, and representatives of the political parties will revise each of the acts to verify any inconsistencies, and if necessary, the TSE will make any resolutions about any contested votes. 16 different working groups, 3 in San Salvador and 13 to be distributed among the remaining Departments, have been established to review the acts. During the process, each act will be available for the political parties to review, and if nobody makes a complaint, the act is validated and put into the formula definitively to be counted for the final elections results.
This was the first election in which the Supreme Electoral Tribunal attempted a residential voting pilot plan in the Cuscatlán Department. The plan has generated more positive opinions than negative. Residents appreciated the fact that voting centers were closer to the most isolated communities. However, inconveniences, such as difficulties finding the voter on the electoral registry or that members of the same family were divided among various voting centers were some of the negative comments made by citizens.
INITIAL REPORTS FROM ELECTIONS OBSERVERS:
250 international observers were present for the elections, including the elections observer missions of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU). On Sunday, four hours after the start of the Municipal and Legislative elections, the OAS Mission of Elections Observers called on citizens to continue exercising their civic duty in tranquility and healthy co-existence. The preliminary report found a delay of almost 40 minutes in the ability of the voting centers to begin receiving votes; they also indicated that only 67% of the voting centers had sufficient physical space to function adquately. For all the Vote Receiving Boards that were observed, the Secretary signed and stamped the ballots that were handed over to the voters. The OAS's report also outlined some complaints made by the population, such as people handing out political propoganda near voting centers, which is against current electoral legislation.
The European Union (EU) observation mission presented a preliminary report of conclusions and recommendations this week. The report highlighted that the TSE shows "certain lack of capacity" to sanction important violations to the Electoral Code, such as the long pre-campaign period, which was characterized by the lack of a law of political parties. Furthermore, the EU misión emphasized the need for reforms to generate "an electoral system more in accordance with the times" that the country is experiencing. According to Luis Yañez-Barnuevo, chief of the EU mission, "the recommended reforms refer to campaign financing, such as the donations and expenses that each party has, as well as the access to the media that each party has, in addition to reinforcing political inclusion, which will allow the two million plus Salvadorans living abroad to vote."
Civil society organizations have also made recommendations for changes in the electoral process, including better training for the members of the Vote Receiving Boards, the purchase of better quality ink, and to avoid delays in the opening of voting centers. An electoral observer mission of the Center for Exchange and Solidarity (CIS) suggested acceleration of the implementation of the residential vote, highlighting that many people faced transportation problems getting to voting centers. Leslie Schuld, head of the observation mission, proposed the creation of an absentee vote, so that party employees that work during the electoral process outside of their municipality or department could vote where they reside.
Salvadoran non-governmental organization, FUNDASPAD, invited a team of 75 international observers, which were distributed throughout ten municipalities. Observers in El Paraiso, Chalatenango received reports that almost double the people that live in the municipality voting in local elections. Voters in El Paraiso also informed observers that the majority of extra names in the electoral registry were of people that had been deceased for several years, or living in the United States, or elsewhere. Observers further noted that in Tachachico, in the La Libertad Department, at 6:45 am, prior to the opening of the voting center, the ARENA mayor candidate, Noe Benitez, was giving $20 to a woman so that she would vote for him. The situation provoked conflict with the voting center authorities, which delayed the ability of the voting center to accept votes. The FUNDSPAD International Election Observation Mission made various recommendations to improve the electoral process, including, the update of the electoral registry according to the most recent 2007 census results.
ARRESTS FOR ELECTORAL FRAUD:
Teresa de Jesús Orellana, a 74 year-old woman, is one of the 18 people detained by the Police during the Municipal and Legislative elections. Orellana was detained in the voting center that was located in the "Costa Rica School Center" in Sonsonete. She ripped up the ballots she was given and put them in the urn where she was supposed to vote; she will face criminal charges of destruction of electoral material. Moreover, there were seven other arrests for electoral fraud, four of which were disorderly conduct and illegal carrying of firearms. National Civilian Police Director, José Luis Tobar, classified the work of the police as successful, and added that the electoral plan allowed them to guarantee the security of voters.
POSTPONEMENT OF ELECTIONS IN SAN ISIDRO, CABAÑAS
The municipality of San Isidro, in the Cabañas Department, will hold its municipal and legislative elections next Sunday, January 25, 2009. The elections have been postponed after the FMLN and PCN political parties closed the voting centers due to the alleged voting of Hondurans and other persons that do not reside in the municipality. According to Romeo Auerbach, from the PCN political party, "ARENA was transporting people, Hondurans with Salvadoran identity documents, so activists and party leaders from the two political parties interrupted the voting. It is unfair that people that live in another city come only on elections day to impose the mayor and then they leave." Auerbach accused ARENA of being the principal author of the electoral manuever, due to the fact that the mayor of the municipality, José Ignacio Bautista, belongs to the ARENA party. The head party leaders of the ARENA party said that it is studying the case, and denied that they had transported Hondurans for voting.
The candidates from the PDC, David Amaya, and the CD, Manuel Antonio Medida, announced that they will withdraw from the elections that will be repeated in the municipality of San Isidro Cabañas next Sunday, January 25, 2009. They based their decision on the refusal of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to clean up the electoral registry and purge the names of persons not living or residing in the municipality. Amaya stated during the press conference announcing his withdrawal from the election, "They do not fulfill their agreements, they do not fulfill the purging [of the electoral registry], and we as the PDC decided to withdraw." The CD candidate alleges that some 2,000 people are in the registry that do not live in the municipality.
The Attorney General has opened a case with regard to irregularities in the electoral process in the municipality of San Isidro, Cabañas. The investigation could confirm the suspicion of electoral fraud with regard to over a hundred persons with identity documents that presented irregularities.
Another municipality in the Cabañas Department presented issues of potential electoral fraud. In a press conference, Walter Araujo, TSE Magistrate, dissuaded doubts about the validity of the election results for the municipality of Guacotecti, in the Cabañas Department, where there various ballots were found disposed of and incinerated. Araujo claimed that those votes were already taken account of when the final "acts" (the document in which ballots are tallied) were scanned into digital format, so the electoral results for that municipality are completely valid.
FURTHER ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD:
The incumbent mayor candidate for the PCN political party in Tepecoyo, La Libertad Department, Jorge Alfredo Estrada Ángel, presented, before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, a motion to nullify the municipal elections for alleged irregularities. As a show of support, hundreds of people took to the streets on Tuesday, January 20, 2009 to support the motion. The irregularities cited in the motion include the seizure of false identification documents, and the establishment of a greater number of Vote Receiving Boards without credentials that received votes on elections day. The mayor claims to have sufficient evidence to prove the fraud.
The ARENA party candidate for mayor of Comacarán, in the San Miguel Department, Aracely Gómez de Carranza, denounced before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal that the FMLN committed fraud during the elections, and requests that the election be repeated in that municipality. "We won the municipality of Comacarán. The people are indignant for the anamolies that occured on elections day in which they lost two 'acts' (documents where the votes are tallied)," stated the candidate. She maintains that foreigners were taken to the zone to vote illegaly so that the FMLN political party would win. She further explained that the same day she made a complaint to the National Civilian Police that she had seen persons not residing in Comacarán casting their ballots on Sunday. Carranza added that, "from 1:00 pm to 3:00pm buses full of people arrived that reside in San Migueal to vote and with this margin, the FMLN won." The results of the election with the alleged fraud resulted in 970 votes for ARENA and 980 votes for the FMLN, of a total of 3,070 persons registered to vote in that municipality.
Inhabitants of the municipality of Tacuba in the Ahuachapán Department, demanded the TSE recount votes, due to irregularities that occurred on elections day. Among the anomalies are the late opening of the voting centers, Unique Identity Documents (DUI) with alterations, and the detection of Guatemalans with Salvadoran Unique Identity Documents voting in the elections. Yanira Zetino denoucned that current mayor of Tacuba and incumbent candidate, Joel Ramírez, for removing ballots from at least four of the electoral urns. According to Zetino, "They took the ballots to the mayor's office (the mayor Ramírez along with two employees) and the people realized this happened, then they asked for them, and he said that he would turn them in." The citizens of the municipality are specifically asking for a re-count of those four urns, with concerns about fraud. The FMLN candidate, Francisco Cruz, lost the election by 94 votes.
In the municipality of Santo Tomás, the ARENA party maintains that they won the municipal elections. According to ARENA, the FMLN-CD coalition is illegitimate and in consequence, ARENA should win the municipality again. Emmanual Flores, representative of the CD in Santo Tomás, emphasized that the coalition was registered in October 2008 to participate in the elections, and that ARENA's arguments are invalid. "Legally we won the municipal elections. ARENA wants to provoke violence in the municipality with these declarations, but we are not going to fall in that trap," added Flores. In the preliminary count, the FMLN-CD coalition won the mayor position in Santo Tomás by 40 votes. Flores further added that they will wait for the final results to come from the TSE before defining whether they won the mayor's office.
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal received 24 complaints regarding last Sunday's elections, but has denied seven motions to nullify the elections due to late filing of the complaints. Ten of the complaints will be reviewed today, and the other seven are being returned with precautionary measures to the respective complainants. Article 322 of the Electoral Code establishes that the legal representatives of the parties may only move to nullify elections for: a) lack of notification to the contestants of the place, day, and hour of the counting of votes; b) for not having carried out the procedure established by law; and c) for falsifying the data or results written on the acts. The TSE found that the appeals presented by the FMLN in San Bartolomé Perulapía (Cuscatlán) and San Luis La Herradura (La Paz), as well as those presented by ARENA in Izalco (Sonsonate), Port of La Libertad (La Libertad), El Paraíso (Chalatenango) y Pasaquina (La Unión) are inadmissible for arriving after 5:00 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2009, which was the deadline established by law to nullify the elections results.
In response to the complaints filed to nullify election results, TSE President, Walter Araujo, stated, "There are masses that intend to provoke disorder, it is necessary to repress this mass with the rule of law. The tribunal already has all the acts in its hands." In spite of the complaints raised by various political parties throughout the country about the participation of foreigners in Sunday's elections, the TSE magistrate Julio Moreno Niños, responded that "there cannot be more citizens voting than those that are in the electoral registry." According to Moreno Niños, the only people registered in the electoral registry are those that reside in each locale. "If there are people that don't live in that locale and they have registered to vote there, that is an electoral crime, the Tribunal closed registrations for voters to cast their ballots in a specific place since February 29, 2008." In response to the allegations of the mobilization of foreigners to vote in Salvadoran elections, Moreno Niños assured that "I knew of a bus that entered the country, it was of tourists going to Nicaragua, the bus was escorted to the boarder, remember that we cannot close our borders."
PRELIMINARY RESULTS:
The below table includes the preliminary prediction of results for the election of representatives to the Legislative Assembly. There is a total of 84 seats, and simple majority to control the Legislative Assembly equals 43 seats. So far, the FMLN appears to have the most seats in the Assembly, although no party has enough votes for a simple majority.
The Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR) political party accepted the preliminary elections results that indicated their party would lose its place in the national political spectrum. According to the Electoral Code, a political party should cease to exist if it does not gain at least one representative in the Legislative Assembly or 50,000 valid votes. The calculations of the party's leaders indicate that they will only obtain between 22,000-25,000 votes. Regardless, the FDR party leaders assured that they would obey the electoral law. The thanked those that believed in their project and ideas and to all those that participated in the defense of the right to vote.
The prognostication of preliminary municipal elections, as of 75% counting of votes, for the capital cities of each of the 14 departments, results in the ARENA party winning 7, the FMLN party winning 5, and the PDC winning 2 capital cities. The distribution is as follows:
San Salvador: ARENA
Santa Ana: FMLN
San Miguel: PDC
Santa Tecla: FMLN
Usulután: FMLN
Sonsonate: ARENA
La Unión: FMLN
Zacatecoluca: FMLN
Chalatenango: ARENA
Cojutepeque: ARENA
Ahuachapán: ARENA
San Francisco Gotera: PDC
San Vicente: ARENA
Sensuntepeque: ARENA
The rest of the municipal elections followed suit, with ARENA winning the most municipalities, although losing many that it held previously. However, the population of the municipalities that the FMLN party won is greater than the population of the municipalities that the ARENA party won, resulting in the FMLN governing more people. According to El Faro, the predicted results, based on the 75% of the votes already counted, show that ARENA lost 30 muncipalities that it held last term, the PCN party lost 14 municipalities, and the FMLN party won 46 more municipalities than it had previously held. The table below shows the predicted number of municipalities each party won during Sunday's elections, with 75% counting of votes:
The biggest and most unexpected loss for the FMLN party was in the municipality of San Salvador, the most populated municipality of the country. The FMLN incumbent mayoral candidate Violeta Menjivar lost to the ARENA candidate Norman Quijano. Many were surprised by the ARENA victory in the country's capital where the FMLN has been in power for the past 12 years. Additionally, many expected Menjivar to win the election, based on the latest public opinion poll conducted by the University of Central America José Simeón Cañas in December 2008, which showed 48.8% of voters intending to vote for Menjivar and 34.9% of voters intending to vote for Quijano. The FMLN party leadership maintains that the ARENA win was due to the mobilization of more or less 10,000 people, including Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Nicaraguans, to San Salvador to vote in the municipal elections. According to Jorge Jiménez, FMLN representative to the Legislative Assembly, "We have proof that there was mobilization of voters from one municipality to another, in the case of San Salvador, we are sure that it was not the capital city residents that elected Norman Quijano, we were pursuing, along with the police, vehicles with Nicaraguans and people from other countries. We are sure that they used this fraudulent mechanism."
Written and researched by: Michelle Petrotta
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BE INFORMED/TAKE ACTION ON VARIOUS ISSUES
Nicaragua
January 20, 2009
1. Aleman prison sentence revoked in exchange for political stability
2. FSLN Continues Electoral Gains on Atlantic Coast
3. Outlines of Emergency Economic Plan Emerge
4. Teachers "Obliged to become Street Vendors"
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1. Aleman Prison Sentence Revoked/Lawsuit Threatened
The Nicaraguan Supreme Court freed "in a definitive manner" former President Arnoldo Aleman, voiding his 2003 conviction for stealing more than US$100 million from state coffers and with money-laundering on a grand scale. The move seemed to be the last step in a five year political dance between Aleman and President Daniel Ortega, although there were indications that the political machinations could continue with an announcement from the Prosecutor Generals' office that it was preparing new indictments on other financial corruption charges that have never been brought to court. Aleman also continues to face indictments in Miami and Panama. For his part, Aleman threatened to sue for $4,000/month back pay he was denied when he lost his legislative immunity.
The timing of the exoneration coincided with the end of the paralysis of the National Assembly as most of Aleman's Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) deputies joined Sandinista (FSLN) deputies in re-electing Sandinista Rene Nuñez as president of the National Assembly. The deal was a set-back for institutionality. It was also a severe blow to the political aspirations of Eduardo Montealegre, both because he failed to pull together a majority to elect his slate to the leadership of the Assembly, and because presumably part of the negotiations for Aleman's freedom included an end to the protests about alleged irregularities in the November 9 municipal elections. Montealegre was contesting his defeat for Mayor of Managua and leading the campaign claiming fraud in the elections. However, with the Nicaraguan right-wing's ever shifting alliances and fractures, one never knows what next month will bring. The annulment removes any legal impediment to an Aleman run for the presidency in 2010. However, he remains the Nicaraguan politician with the lowest public approval rating.
We can expect a period of relative political calm which the Ortega government badly needs to confront the effects of the world financial crisis on Nicaragua. The months of paralysis of the National Assembly has meant that laws were not passed that the IMF requires before it will release loans scheduled for 2009. The European Union, several European countries, and the US Millennium Challenge Fund have suspended aid to the Nicaraguan government over concerns about the municipal elections. In response to a letter from the Nicaragua Network urging the EU not to cut aid because it would constitute "collective punishment" of Nicaragua's poor, EU Ambassador to the US, John Bruton, responded that he is also concerned and, "The European Commission sincerely hopes that the situation will evolve in a positive and constructive way, so that the decision to suspend budget support can be reconsidered as soon as possible."
2. FSLN Continues Electoral Gains on Atlantic Coast
In November, the FSLN won control of 105 municipalities on the Pacific side of Nicaragua, leaving the main opposition parties with only 41, including just one municipality of significant size, the southern city of Granada, on Lake Cocibolca. On Sunday, Jan. 19, these gains were complemented in the municipal elections in the Northern Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) which were delayed due to damage by Hurricane Felix. The FSLN took all the main centers of population, including the principal city of Bilwi/Puerto Cabesas.
The Atlantic Coast, home to most of Nicaragua's indigenous peoples, was declared autonomous by the Constitution passed by the first FSLN government in 1987. Under that Constitution, the North and South Atlantic Regions (RAAN and RAAS) have the right to govern themselves through regional councils representing the local populations of Miskito, Sumo- Mayagna, Rama and other ethnic groups. With 97% of votes counted, the president of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), Dr. Roberto Rivas, declared the FSLN victorious in Bilwi/Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, Rosita y Bonanza. The Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC), the Front's principal rival, won Siuna and Mulukukú, while the indigenous people's party, Yatama, won Prinzapolka.
Despite alarmist anticipation in much of the national news media, claiming concern that the Coast would see tumult similar to that following the Pacific Coast elections when opposition parties took to the streets to protest the results, Sunday passed off without serious incident, perhaps indicative of agreements reached over the nullification of Aleman's conviction. Voter turnout at 34%, however, was low by Nicaraguan standards, which has historically seen levels way above 50%.
3. Outlines of Emergency Economic Plan Emerge
The global financial crisis has forced the Nicaraguan government to send a revised 2009 budget to the National Assembly. Instead of the US$700 million that it was seeking, the total budget will now come in at US$500 million, pretty much in line with that of last year. Presidential economic advisor Bayardo Arce and Central Bank president Antenor Rosales acknowledged that, of the US$200 million deficit, at least US$100 million was due to European countries and the US suspending promised aid due to alleged irregularities in the November municipal elections.
Rosales went on to say that Central Bank projections for 2009 had Nicaragua halving its probable overall growth, from over 4% to just 2.0%, and an anticipated rate of inflation of 8-9%. Arce underlined that the government will guarantee the financing of all measures adopted, explicitly ruling out a rumored revision of the tax code "for this year, at least." Given the extraordinary nature of the crisis, both men emphasized the vital importance of the assistance provided to Nicaragua by Venezuela and others by virtue of its membership in the Bolivarian Alternative for Our Americas (ALBA). ALBA has established itself as a "fair trading block" challenging conventional "free trade agreements" sponsored by the US and Europe, now widely seen in Latin America as doing more harm than good.
The budget cut-backs have raised concerns among students who can attend university only if they continue to receive scholarships. César Pérez, President of the Nicaraguan National Union of Students (UNEN), explained that those who already have grants will continue to receive their scholarships. "Those primarily affected will be the new intake of students. There simply may well be no budget to offer them support for this year."
Gustavo Porras, FSLN deputy to the National Assembly and General Secretary of the National Workers Front (FNT), called on all sectors of Nicaraguan society to bear the burden of the government's anti-crisis measures. "It's vital that such measures reflect our priorities, our model, our values," he said. "That means they should be aimed at the support of people in the countryside, to support the production of food, the development of small farmer production, the development of our country." He continued, "We want nothing to do with measures to continue and defend neo-liberalism. We've stated clearly that we will not return to neo-liberalism; for example, measures intended to support the banks. Why on earth? That's just defending neo-liberalism! On the contrary, we must adopt measures which involve everyone, all sectors, including the banks and bankers, in developing national production. This is something all Nicaraguans must take on together."
Porras continued by saying that, in the past, the burden of emergency measures tended to be borne by the working class, while the business classes as a rule sought exonerations and other means to soften the impact on themselves, while giving little in return. "Not this time," said Porras. "This time, it's up to all of us to act to cushion and ameliorate this situation." He went on to criticize offices with several vehicles assigned to them where one would do, and challenged his colleagues to cut back on their cell phone ownership and big spending on calls. "The working people are prepared to take on some of the burden of these cuts made necessary by the failure of neo-liberalism," he declared, "but only if they see that they are being borne equitably by all sectors. If we expect them to assist in solving the crisis, we legislators and others in government must set the example," he concluded.
6, Teachers "Obliged to become Street Vendors"
Arsenio Vivas, president of the Nicaraguan National Confederation of Teachers, declared that as many as 7,000 teachers will find themselves forced to take to the streets to sell whatever they can if they are denied "their right" to a double shift. With the lowest teachers pay in Central America many teachers have been forced to teach in both of Nicaragua's daily school sessions in order to earn a double income. Education Minister Miguel de Castilla, has managed to raise teachers' pay three times for a total increase of approximately US$75, although it still remains low. He intends to eliminate the double shift to improve standards within the profession. De Castilla insists that the law expressly forbids teachers taking more than a single shift per day, adding that they are entirely at liberty to take other forms of extra work if they find it necessary.
The minister's position was supported wholeheartedly by José Antonio Zepeda, leader of the Nicaraguan National Association of Teachers (ANDEN). "These people with double or triple shifts are just shameless," he said. "The practice is a leftover from the corrupt so-called school autonomy system, (imposed by the World Bank and IMF) which the current government has replaced with genuinely public schools once again." He claimed that in fact no more than 1,800 teachers would be affected, and that, even as single turn teachers, they already receive a salary of between 3,000 and 3,500 cordobas (US$160 - US$170) per month.
Vivas hotly disputed Zepeda's claims, calling ANDEN a "company union" at the minister's beck and call. "The majority of the teachers who take double shifts are single mothers, struggling to support their families," he said. "How dare they call these people 'shameless', especially when they themselves enjoy the fat salary of a minister or deputy to the national assembly? Even the Central Bank admits that the basic 'food basket' for a month here is now costing around 12,000 (US$ 590) cordobas. And a teacher on 3000 cordobas!" In response to Xepeda's claim that the 44,000 teachers working directly with the ministry of education seemed to be managing, Vivas retorted, "Sure, by working in private schools or by selling on the street!"
Claiming that teachers had gained the right to the double shift, and that de Castilla was really seeking to make room for teachers who were FSLN members, Vivas concluded, "We're going to fight for this right at the start of the new school year in early February. We'll set up a picket outside the Education Ministry and take several other measures to make our voices heard. We're not delinquents nor shameless; this is not a political business, it's a question of hunger." The efforts by the Ortega government to rebuild the education system after 16 years of strangulation and privatization forced by World Bank/IMF structural adjustment conditions has been heroic but difficult. Classrooms are filled to overflowing, infrastructure has deteriorated, and teachers' salaries do not provide a living wage.
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This hotline is prepared from the Nicaragua News Service and other sources. To receive a more extensive weekly summary of the news from Nicaragua by e-mail or postal service, send a check for $60.00 to Nicaragua Network, 1247 E St., SE, Washington, DC 20003. We can be reached by phone at 202-544-9355. Our web site is: www.nicanet.org To subscribe to the Hotline, send an e-mail to nicanet@afgj.org
PERU
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Bush signed Peru FTA before Peru met regulations: Obama should enforce or renegotiate corrupted deal
The Peru-US free trade agreement is an embarrassment in the history of relations between the United States and Peru.
The negotiation process of the Peru FTA sums up the worst dangers of "free" trade: little respect for human rights, a mockery of the international law, violation of basic rights of American and Peruvian workers and farmers, and a clear example of how far Wall Street corrupted corporations can go in order to take over the natural resources of developing nations.
Yesterday, President Bush signed the proclamation of implementation of the Peru FTA, even before the government of Peru had fulfilled its commitments signed in May 2007, in order to guarantee labor rights and environmental protections in the Andean country.
This implementation has been done ignoring warnings from US Congress House Ways and Means Committee members and AFL-CIO union leaders.
A history of corruption and abuse
The abusive history of the Peru FTA began with national protests and strikes in Peru back in 2004, when then president of Peru, Alejandro Toledo (US-citizen) announced the negotiations.
Ever since then, not a single chapter of this agreement has been written by the Peruvian government, as the Bush administration imposed all the details that will benefit the same American corporations that have caused the worst economic crisis of a generation.
The Peruvian Congress approved this FTA in June 2006 in a lame duck session, after ignoring the request of 60 thousand signatures for a National Referendum. Eighty percent of those Congress members had already lost the elections. Right after, farmers launched a national strike in 8 regions of the country which met a furious and violent police response.
During the four-years negotiation process, hundreds of thousands of Peruvians have protested in the streets of Lima, and other important Peruvian cities. Alan Garcia run as a candidate opposing t he FTA, but he betrayed his voters after elected.
The political representation in Peru is so corrupted and misrepresenting, that it took the effort of Us Congress members so labor and environmental protections for Peruvians can be included in this FTA - even after it had already passed in Peru’s Congress. On December 2008 the Democratic-led US Congress passed the Peru FTA (with most House Democrats opposing it) but this time it included modifications that president-elect Obama called “well structured.”
In summary, this FTA has been signed by the worst presidents in the history of both countries: a disgraced George W. Bush and Alan Garcia, the shameless president of Peru who still has pending cases of human rights abuses and corruption cases. Bush has the lowest presidential approval in US history and Garcia has a 17% popularity rate in most of Peru.
Peruvians have no representation
The current Garcia government is permanently attacking the interests of Peruvian people, and so far 26 Peruvians have been killing during social protests since 2006.
Thirteen political leaders and intellectuals have been accused of “international terrorism” by a Peruvian Court under the pressure from the Executive, including leaders of CGTP which is the biggest labor union in Peru. Another 300 community organizers and farmers are currently being prosecuted, and some like Roque Gonzales are being incarcerated without justification.
Meanwhile,=2 0several mining projects are leased to foreign corporations in populated regions, ignoring the rights of those who live in those territories. About 73% of the Peruvian Amazon forest has been already leased without consent of the Native communities living there, including protected areas.
As today, about 7 million Peruvian farmers are holding a national strike, protesting a government decree which will privatize the control of water resources in rural territories, affecting the rights of Native people over their natural resources.
Recently a farmer leader in northern Peru denounced that he and 28 other Native leaders were tortured by Peruvian police and a private security company in 2005, during the Alejandro Toledo government, for defending their land against a UK/China mining venture take over.
Above 70% of Peruvian workers work an average of 13 hours per day, with a $200 dollars monthly salary, without labor rights or social security benefits. Peruvian authorities have done little to avoid the activities of abusive labor agencies, which are created by Peruvian companies themselves to avoid meeting labor standards.
More than 5 thousands mining workers have lost their jobs in the last month because of global mineral prices reduction, even when the government says the national economy grew 9% in 2008. The mining industry in Peru is one of the most polluting in the world.
The booming agro industry in Peru’s coastal towns employs day laborers –in the same fashion of undocumented fa rmers in the US- avoiding permanent employment, guaranteeing low wages and no labor benefits. Most of the agribusiness owners are rich Peruvians and foreigner investors, especially from Chile, Europe and the US.
The threats of the Peru FTA
Even before the Peru FTA was implemented, American mining and oil corporations are already polluting entire regions of Peru, poisoning thousands of Indigenous peoples. Abuses are reported daily and even CNN' Planet in Peril showed the horrifying case of the town of La Oroya, where children are poisoned with metal lead in their blood, 10 times the maximum level in the US.
This FTA allows more dependence of the Peruvian government and the vulnerability of the rights of Peruvian people, to whatever decisions are made in Washington, DC. The decrease of sovereignty is already obvious in the Andean country: a recent decree of the Peruvian government is allowing fourteen US Navy war ships to use its seaports in the Pacific coast, and US military personnel have plenty of access to Peruvian territory.
This is not a way for the United States to truly promote democracy, human rights and progress with equality among neighboring nations of Latin America -as we have heard so often. This is corporate corruption, colonialism and imperialism at their worts.
If the new Obama administration is willing the change the US approach towards such unfair region as Latin America, then it should remind the Peruvian government to enforce the FTA labor and environmental regulations.
Otherwise this FTA should be renegotiated.
Autor: Carlos A. Quiroz
COLOMBIA
Dear Colombia Advocates:
Barack Obama's transition team has set up an interactive "Citizen's Briefing Book" http://citizensbriefingbook.change.gov/ where you can send your ideas for America's future to the president-elect.
We'd like you to visit this website today to show your support for a new, positive direction in U.S. policy towards Colombia that stands by victims and human rights activists, helps bring human rights abusers to justice, and invests in peace. >>ideas/viewIdea.apexp?id=087800000004ngi&srPos=0&srKp=087
To "vote" for a new Colombia policy, you must first register at change.gov (we promise it's easy). Once you're registered, go back to our idea and click "vote up." We encourage you to add your own vision for a new Colombia policy to the ideas' comments section.
The ideas that receive the most votes will receive a public response from the transition team, so don't pass up this opportunity to make your voice heard!
If you haven't already, remember to sign our petition calling on President-elect Obama to build a just U.S. policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean. www.lawg.org
Travis Wheeler
Lisa Haugaard
Latin America Working Group
twheeler@lawg.org
*Join LAWG in Washington, DC March 16-19, 2009 for the 7th annual Ecumenical Advocacy Days! Advocacy Days is an excellent opportunity to join other advocates in DC to call on the new Congress to build a new policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean that unites us with our neighbors. Don't miss it--register today!
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COLOMBIA: The Indigenous Continue to Walk
by Chris Knestrick, Kim Lamberty and Sandra Rincon
After marching for over a month, ten-thousand representatives of Colombia's indigenous peoples from 102 towns arrived in Bogotá on 20 November, where they camped on the grounds of the national university for five days. They sought a meeting with President Uribe and the Colombian government to demand that they respect the rights of the indigenous communities. They also wanted to build solidarity with other sectors of Colombian society to join the struggle for a more peaceful country.
This mobilization of the Indigenous Communities, or the "Minga," which means a gathering of the peoples, started on 10 October in the south of Colombia. Shortly after the Minga began, the Colombian police opened fire on the marchers, killing three and injuring 130, according to the National Organization of Colombia Indigenous. The marchers continued on saying, "We are peacefully exercising our rights to social and civil resistance and will continue to do so." Even after President Uribe vowed to not allow the marchers to enter Bogotá, the Minga continued and on 20 November entered the country's capital. The following day, in an amazing show of solidarity, thousands of students, social organizations, and unions joined the marchers in one of the largest demonstrations in recent Colombian history.
A "Minga" is only called during a serious and important time. This Minga lifted the voices of Colombia's indigenous peoples and brought two central messages to the people of the Colombia: First, that all the victims of the war in Colombia must raise their voices to end this war and build a new Colombia that serves everyone. Second, the government must stop giving the land of indigenous communities to multinational corporations that exploit the nation's natural resources and destroy the land.
The Minga proposed specific actions to fulfill those demands: 1) reject a free trade agreement with the United States; 2) form a joint commission to investigate and prosecute human rights abuses; 3) honor all past agreements with the indigenous peoples; 4) reject Plan Colombia; 5) apologize and pay reparations for the three people killed and the 130 injured during the Minga; and 6) institute a number of legislative and constitutional reforms that would guarantee sovereignty, peace, and co-existence for all peoples of Colombia. (For more information, see http://www.onic.org.co/.)
Many of the social sectors agreed to the six points brought to the government by the Minga. The individuals most affected by the war – the indigenous, women, Afro-Colombians, campesinos, and laborers – vowed to continue the work together for a more peaceful country.
President Uribe refused to meet with the marchers. The Minga representatives met with other government officials until early December when leaders decided to not continue. "With our dignity and the conviction from our heart, the Minga returns to the regions of Colombia and will continue spreading around the word. Because of the lack of answers, the continued lies and the irresponsible affirmations about us from the national government, we the spokespeople of the Minga of Social and Community Resistance return to our lands spreading our message by ‘Walking the Word’ throughout the country and the world," said their release. The Minga reminds people that the movement will continue in its struggle for indigenous rights and the end of violence in Colombia and everyone is welcome to join.
[CPTers Sandra Rincon, Kim Lamberty, and Chris Knestrick, accompanied the Minga from 16 to 24 November.]
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